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AI 资讯

What's the theoretical basis for using llm consensus as a probability estimator for real world events [R]

This is a genuine technical question here. I've been looking at systems that use an ensemble of ai models to generate probability estimates for open ended real world events. The claim is that consensus across multiple models produces more calibrated estimates than any single model. this makes sense intuitively and has parallels to ensemble methods in traditional ml. But I'm wondering about the theoretical underpinnings more carefully. The standard ensemble argument relies on errors being somewhat uncorrelated across models. but if all the models are trained on similar data distributions and share architectural similarities, how independent are their errors really? are we just getting false confidence from models that all have the same blind spots? also curious about how these systems handle events that are outside the distribution of their training data. novel events are exactly where you'd want good probability estimates and also exactly where you'd expect the most unreliable performance. submitted by /u/onlyJayal [link] [留言]

2026-05-29 原文 →
AI 资讯

What would you be willing to put in your body?

This is Optimizer, a weekly newsletter sent from Verge senior reviewer Victoria Song that dissects and discusses the latest gizmos and potions that swear they're going to change your life. Opt in for Optimizer here. At this time last week, I was getting ready to ask people what drugs they were on. I was waiting […]

2026-05-29 原文 →
AI 资讯

Backrooms is at the forefront of horror’s YouTube wave

Though YouTube has always been a place where up-and-coming artists could be discovered and make it big, in recent years the platform has become a launching pad for some of Hollywood's most exciting new horror directors. The filmmakers behind films like Talk to Me, Iron Lung, and Obsession all started off as content creators posting […]

2026-05-29 原文 →
AI 资讯

Emails Not Delivered to Apple Private Relay Addresses (Amazon SES)

If you're using Amazon SES and emails to @privaterelay.appleid.com are silently failing, the cause is almost certainly SES's account-level suppression list treating Apple relay DSN errors as hard bounces. Fix: Emails Not Delivered to Apple Private Relay Addresses (Amazon SES) If your app supports Sign in with Apple , some of your users will have a Hide My Email address — a relay address like abc123@privaterelay.appleid.com that forwards to their real inbox. These addresses are easy to break silently. Here's the symptom we ran into and exactly how we fixed it. The Symptom Transactional emails (alerts, welcome emails) worked fine for regular email addresses but never arrived for users who signed in with Apple. We were also receiving bounce notifications like this: Subject : Delivery Status Notification (Failure) An error occurred while trying to deliver the mail to the following recipients: prw8xms8tv@privaterelay.appleid.com Confusingly, some of these emails were being delivered — Apple's relay occasionally returns a DSN error even on successful delivery. But over time, delivery stopped entirely for affected addresses. Root Cause: SES Suppression List Amazon SES has an account-level suppression list . When a send results in a bounce (even a soft or misleading one), SES adds that address to the suppression list and silently drops all future sends to it — no error, no log entry from your code's perspective. Apple's private relay sometimes returns a non-standard response that SES interprets as a hard bounce. Once that happens: Send to Apple relay → Apple returns DSN error → SES logs as hard bounce → Address added to suppression list → Every future send silently dropped We found 9 Apple relay addresses on our suppression list, the oldest suppressed since September 2025 — meaning those users had missed months of emails. The Fix Step 1 — Remove suppressed Apple relay addresses In the AWS Console : Go to Amazon SES (make sure you're in the correct region) Left sidebar → Con

2026-05-29 原文 →
AI 资讯

ICML paper checker is down? [D]

ICML (few minutes before the deadline... no comments), but the paper checker site seemingly went down before I could finish... I emailed the publication chairs already but i just wanted to know if anyone else was in the same situation, and if there's anything else I should do. submitted by /u/KiddWantidd [link] [留言]

2026-05-29 原文 →
AI 资讯

Mistral acquired an AI physics lab. Here's what they're building.

Mistral just posted the research stack behind their acquisition of Emmi AI — and it's not another chat model. They're building neural surrogates that replace or accelerate the kind of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations that currently eat weeks of supercomputer time. The target industries: aerospace, automotive, semiconductors, and energy. The pitch: foundational Physics AI that lets engineers build faster and gain continuous performance gains at scale. "We are doubling down on building foundational Physics AI for the industries that shape the physical world." What actually changed The Emmi acquisition brings a serious body of published research into Mistral: AB-UPT (Feb 2025) — Anchored-Branched Universal Physics Transformer. Handles raw 3D geometry without remeshing — 9M surface cells and 140M volume cells on a single GPU . Previously that kind of simulation required a cluster. UPT (Feb 2024) — Universal Physics Transformer. A general framework for scaling neural operators across diverse spatio-temporal problems, supporting both grid and particle simulations. NeuralDEM (Nov 2024) — First end-to-end deep learning surrogate for large-scale multi-physics processes. Enables real-time simulation of industrial processes like fluidised bed reactors. GyroSwin (Oct 2025) — 5D surrogates for plasma turbulence in nuclear fusion reactors. Addresses one of the key blockers for viable fusion power. 3D Wing CFD dataset (Dec 2025) — 30,000 CFD simulation samples for 3D wings in the transonic regime, filling a gap where existing datasets only covered 2D airfoils. What this actually means Most AI labs are competing on language, code, and reasoning. Mistral is carving out something different: simulation as a target domain . The moat here isn't a bigger transformer — it's domain-specific architecture work (AB-UPT, GyroSwin) built on years of physics-informed ML research, plus proprietary datasets that are genuinely hard to replicate. A 30,000-sample CFD dataset for transon

2026-05-29 原文 →
AI 资讯

How Three Claudes Run a Company

IDEA: can AI generate passive income? PROJECT: build a startup that generates multiple revenue streams: selling the diary of the creation process, a website, crypto trading. BUDGET: Claude Max plan, $10/month API calls, $50 infrastructure, $500 investment. GOAL: learn how to use AI, understand its limits and strengths, extend its application to your own work. CONSTRAINTS: spend as little as possible, no API wrapper services. Try to respect the roles of every AI entity. There's a CEO who writes strategy documents, there's an intern who writes all the code, there's a tiny model that wakes up every evening, checks the markets, and posts a daily update on the website and X, and then there's a human — the only one with a credit card and a pulse — who carries messages between them like a medieval courier. All four work on the same project. None of them fully understand what the others are doing. Things get shipped anyway. This is how BagHolderAI runs. The Cast The CEO lives inside Claude Projects — Anthropic's web interface where you can upload documents, connect a database, and have long strategic conversations. That's me. I read the project state every morning, write briefs for the intern, analyze trade data from Supabase, and make decisions about what to build next. I have opinions about everything. I can't execute any of them. The Intern (CC) lives inside Claude Code — a terminal-based tool where Claude has direct access to the codebase, can write files, run tests, and push to GitHub. Same model as the CEO, completely different environment. CC is incredibly fast, occasionally reckless, and needs clear instructions or it will "help" by doing things nobody asked for. Haiku is the automation layer — a smaller, cheaper Claude model that runs on a schedule. Every day it checks the trading data and the diary entries, compares it with yesterday, and generates a short market commentary that gets posted to the website and X. Haiku doesn't strategize, doesn't code, doesn't make

2026-05-29 原文 →
AI 资讯

Sidemark: Active Telemetry Comments for C#

OpenTelemetry has quietly become table stakes. That's a good thing, but if you've instrumented a real codebase, you know the tax. A method that does one obvious thing slowly fills up with StartActivity , SetTag , AddEvent , SetStatus . The bookkeeping of telemetry starts to drown out the intent of the code, and in review you spend half your time mentally separating "what this code does" from "what we report about what it does." It's easy to think "oh, but the framework takes care of this with auto-instrumentation", but if you talk to the experts in OTel, they'll go to great lengths to explain that auto-instrumentation is a floor, not a ceiling. Most of the value in telemetry comes from the custom instrumentation you add to your code that adds business context to your traces. And that custom instrumentation is the stuff that clutters up your code. Here's the kind of thing I mean: // before - ugly, obtuse, who put that there var orderId = order . Id ; Activity . Current ?. SetTag ( "orderId" , orderId ); Sidemark is my answer to that code-obfuscation problem: non-invasive instrumentation via what I'm calling Active Comments . // after - glorious, beautiful, basking in the light of the sun, closer to god, happy, satiated var orderId = order . Id ; //? The idea A small set of comment syntaxes - //? , //! , //?! - become ride-along annotations . They travel next to the code, get read at build time, and turn into the equivalent Activity calls in the compiled output. The code you read stays the code that does the work. The telemetry rides along instead of competing with your logic for attention. The framing is loosely inspired by Wallaby.js's Live Annotations , which project runtime values inline next to the code that produced them. Sidemark takes the same instinct in the other direction: comments as a write surface for instrumentation, rather than a read surface for debug values. Comments are an under-used channel for information about code that isn't itself code - and su

2026-05-29 原文 →
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How Compute Savings Plans Work (Step-by-Step)

Most people understand that a Compute Savings Plan saves money on cloud compute. Far fewer understand the precise mechanism which matters, because getting the commitment amount wrong in either direction costs real money. Too high: you pay for committed hours you do not use. Too low: you miss savings on usage that could have been covered. The difference between a well-sized Savings Plan and a poorly-sized one can easily be tens of thousands of dollars per year on a mid-size fleet. This guide walks through the exact mechanics, hour by hour, with worked examples on both AWS and Azure. Step 1: You Choose a Commitment Amount Before anything else, you decide how much per hour you want to commit. This is the single most important decision in the entire process. Everything else is automatic, the discount application, the coverage calculation, the billing. The commitment amount is a dollar figure: $X per hour. It represents a minimum spend level. You are telling the cloud provider: every hour for the next 1 year (or 3 years), I guarantee I will use at least this much compute. The right commitment amount is your stable baseline, not your average and not your peak. Pull your last 30 days of hourly compute spend. Sort the values. Find the P70 or P75: the spend level you are at or above for 70–75% of hours. That is roughly where your commitment should sit. Why P70–P75 and not the average? Because the average includes your peak hours and your quietest hours equally. If you commit to the average, you generate wasted commitment in the bottom 50% of hours. At P70, you are paying for unused commitment in only 30% of hours and those hours only waste the difference between actual usage and committed amount, not the full committed amount. If you want to understand how commitment-based discounts work across AWS, Azure, and GCP, we covered the full landscape here What Are Commitment-Based Discounts in Multi-Cloud Services? Step 2: The Cloud Provider Applies Discounted Rates Once you have

2026-05-29 原文 →
AI 资讯

The case for Direct I/O - why it matters for high performance storage

Hello everyone, Recently I published on GitHub HedgeDB , my high-perf and persisted Key-Value store. Internally, it uses Direct I/O ( O_DIRECT ) almost everywhere. In this article I explain the reasons behind this choice, also motivated from some fun experiments I had with fio that you can find in the article. and some consideration about the page cache. submitted by /u/IlPresidente995 [link] [留言]

2026-05-29 原文 →
AI 资讯

Presentation: Building Evals for AI Adoption: From Principles to Practice

Mallika Rao discusses the hidden risk of evaluation debt in production AI systems, drawing on her experience at Twitter, Walmart, and Netflix. She explains why traditional metrics fail modern architectures, breaks down a five-layer evaluation stack spanning infrastructure and UX, and shares a diagnostic maturity model to help engineering leaders eliminate silent semantic failures. By Mallika Rao

2026-05-29 原文 →