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A model with R-squared near 0 can still give valid 90% prediction intervals - here's why (and the catch)

I recently calibrated a recovery-rate model that had only two weak features. Its point accuracy was almost nothing — R² basically zero. I expected its uncertainty estimates to be junk too. They weren't: the 90% conformal prediction intervals covered ~89% of held-out outcomes. Valid, just wide . That surprised me enough to nail it down, because it contradicts a belief a lot of us carry around: "my model isn't accurate, so I can't trust its uncertainty." For split conformal prediction, that's backwards. Here's the precise statement, a runnable demo, and the one caveat that actually bites. Coverage is a property of the procedure, not the model Split conformal prediction gives a distribution-free, finite-sample marginal coverage guarantee : P( Y ∈ Ĉ(X) ) ≥ 1 − α and it holds for any point model, as long as the calibration and test data are exchangeable. The model is a black box. You fit it however you like, then on a held-out calibration set you take the (1−α) quantile of the absolute residuals, and that quantile becomes the half-width of your intervals. Nowhere does that construction require the model to be good. A bad model just has large residuals, so the calibration quantile is large, so the intervals are wide — wide enough to still cover at the stated rate. Accuracy doesn't buy you validity ; it buys you efficiency (narrower intervals at the same coverage). The demo (numbers are reproducible, seed fixed) Same dataset and target, three models from strong to useless, target coverage 90%: model R² marginal coverage mean interval width gradient boosting 0.741 0.895 5.39 weak linear (1 noisy feature) 0.061 0.905 10.39 predict-the-mean −0.000 0.907 10.83 All three land at ~90% coverage. The only thing that changes is width: the good model's intervals are half as wide . That's the whole story in one table — validity is constant, efficiency tracks accuracy. import numpy as np from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression from sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingReg

2026-06-18 原文 →
AI 资讯

How to Rewrite a Chinese-Tenured Faculty Role for US Data Scientist Jobs

Why Your Chinese-Tenured Faculty Resume Won’t Work in US Industry US data scientist hiring managers scan a resume in 7–15 seconds looking for one thing: evidence you can solve business problems with data. A Chinese faculty resume often leads with tenure status, publication counts, and grant amounts—none of which translate to industry value. Worse, the CV-style length and Chinese-specific qualifications (e.g., “Professor of Record,” “National Natural Science Foundation PI”) confuse HR software and recruiters unfamiliar with that system. You need to strip the academic frame and rebuild around what a US data scientist does: clean messy data, build predictive models, deploy to production, and communicate results to non-technical stakeholders. Think of every faculty achievement as raw material you must reframe. Core Rewriting Rules: From Academic to Industry Rule 1: Replace Tenure Rank with a US-Equivalent Data Science Title Do not list “Tenured Associate Professor” unless it is your most recent position at a well-known university (e.g., Peking University, Tsinghua). Instead, use a title that reveals your function: “Senior Data Scientist – Research Computing” or “Lead Data Scientist – Machine Learning Research Lab.” The point is to signal the job function, not the academic rank. Example: Before: “Tenured Associate Professor, School of Computer Science, Fudan University” After: “Senior Data Scientist / Research Lead, Fudan University AI Lab” Rule 2: Translate Every Accomplishment into a Business-Relevant Metric Chinese faculty resumes often say “published 15 papers in top-tier journals” or “secured ¥3M in research funding.” That means nothing to a hiring manager at a fintech startup. Instead, describe what you did with the data and the outcome. Concrete example – before and after: BEFORE (faculty bullet): “Led research project on deep learning for medical image segmentation; published 3 papers in IEEE TMI.” AFTER (industry data scientist bullet): “Built and validated a co

2026-06-17 原文 →
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Jackery announces ‘world’s slimmest’ fridge battery

Jackery is jumping on the fridge-battery trend with what it says is the "world's slimmest." FridgeGuard also looks nice; a break from power stations that tend to look more at home at a job site than the kitchen or living room. Measuring just 2.63 inches (67mm) thick, the Jackery FridgeGuard power station is meant to […]

2026-06-17 原文 →